loelens: scenario modelling for property prices in Dutch cities
A tool that shows where home prices in Dutch cities could go over the next ten years, under four scenarios. Live, and still changing.
Debate about the property market runs on confident claims. Rates will rise, supply will fail, this neighbourhood will hold. Almost none of it is said in a form anyone can check later.
loelens projects home values by postcode area, ten years ahead, under four scenarios. Amsterdam is calibrated on its own data. Rotterdam, Utrecht, The Hague and Eindhoven are live as provisional cities. They use their own neighbourhood figures, but part of the rules that turn those figures into a price path still comes from Amsterdam. The tool says so on screen instead of hiding it behind a smooth number.
Most of the data is public. The main sources are the Dutch statistics office CBS, the European Central Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank and the City of Amsterdam’s own statistics. A few market figures from commercial sources sit alongside. Scheduled jobs refresh the data every week, month and quarter.
Anyone can explore the baseline scenario for free, one neighbourhood at a time. The four scenarios, reports and a professional tier are priced and will open once payments are set up. Amsterdam came first because its data is the best, and the method is meant to travel. It is a work in progress, live and still changing.